The current MotoGP pyramid became what it is now since 2012. Most riders have to conquer Moto3 and Moto2 before embracing the pinnacle of Motocycles.
On the other hand, who will enjoy the promotion from feeder series is one of the hottest topics off the track every year. We saw a lot of Moto2 champions or winners of multiple GPs fail to make the cut. We also saw some young guns getting the nod without ever crowning the lower series.
I start to wonder if RESULTS and AGE and equally important in the decision making process. To have a better grasp about it, I made a progressive chart comprising of all riders who started championship career after 2012 and made it to the MotoGP.
Champions
First let’s see how the champions do. Bagnaia, Quartararo and Mir are definitely closer to the front than the end of the echelon.
Outliers
Now we move on to riders who made a name early on. Vinales and Acosta arrive the scene at the age of 20. They are not championship contenders yet, but already in a good position to eventually achieve that feat.
Zarco is the sole late-bloomer on the grid now. Riders older than 27y should not find a full-time seat at MotoGP if never managed do so before.
Newcomers
Given the info from the progressive chart, I want to predict the prospect of 4 young riders currently in the lower series.
- David Alonso (18y): full-time seat by 21y/2027.
- Izan Guevara (20y): wildcard; 30% chance to have a full-time seat.
- Ai Ogura (23y): full-time seat by 25y/2026. –already announced for 2025 season
- Aron Canet (25y): wildcard; 20% chance to have a full-time seat.
Footnote: data as of 2024-05-18.